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Monday, May 21, 2007

Weekend Trader

Today one of Weekend Trader's four positions was replaced by another one. I didn't have any problems replicating the C2 fills, but from the reviews on the C2 site, it seems some subscribers are afraid that the signals generated by the system have an impact on the price. If that's the case, subscribers should be able to match the C2 reported fills, but might experience lower profits compared to those reported in the past (when the number of subscribers was perhaps lower).

One way to test this, would be to calculate for each stock ever traded by Weekend Trader, the ratio:

Monday's Open / Preceding Friday's Close - 1

(i.e. the return over the weekend)

and estimate if a difference exists between the Monday the signal was issued and all other Mondays in a year.

Some hypotheses:
- We would expect a positive effect for buy signals, and negative effect for sell signals
- We would expect the effect to become larger over time (as the number of subscribers has been growing most likely)
- We would expect not to find a similar effect for other days of the week

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